Bega voting booth analysis shows definitive Labor shift; Eden bucks trend

Following Saturday's state election, it appears Bega, Monaro and the South Coast have all swung to Labor as NSW welcomes its first Labor government in 12 years.

Shelley Hancock, South Coast Liberal MP for the past 20 years, looks to have been unseated by Liza Butler, while Monaro, long held by the Nationals - John Barilaro and then Nichole Overall - has fallen to Steve Whan with around a 15 per cent swing towards Labor in both seats.

Since its current formation in 1988, the Bega electorate was considered a safe conservative seat and was held by the Liberal Party right through until 2022.

A by-election that year, triggered by the resignation of long-time member Andrew Constance (2003-2021), was won by Labor's Michael Holland.

The sentiment appears to be shifting even more to Labor, with Dr Holland re-elected on Saturday with an increased margin.

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Looking at the booths across the electorate, the victory appears definitive.

Although counting continues this week and pre-polls are yet to be included, Dr Holland won all but three booths stretching from Batemans Bay in the north to Eden in the south.

And two of those - Pambula Public School and Tura Marrang Library - were essentially a dead heat with Liberal contender Russell Fitzpatrick ahead 355 to 352 at Pambula and 318 to 304 at Tura.

Eden was the only clear Liberal booth win, Mr Fitzpatrick ahead 603 to 498 - the results perhaps not surprising as he lives at Greigs Flat, partway between Eden and Pambula.

Home seems to be a strong indicator for vote preferences, Cathy Griff of the Greens polling strongly in both her local Tanja and Tathra booths.

At the close of counting Saturday night, the Greens had picked up 9.3 per cent of the primary vote.

Debra Abbott of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party was a close next in line with 8.34 per cent of the first preference vote, despite being invisible throughout the campaign and with no signage nor volunteers at voting booths.

Greg White of the Legalise Cannabis Party picked up 4.77 per cent of the primary vote, while Independent Jeffrey Hawkins claimed 2.55 per cent and Karin Geiselhart of the Sustainable Australia Party 1.45 per cent.

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