A modest rise in payroll jobs in late September could be another early sign Australia's labour market is on the turn, after a bleak few months when half the population was in coronavirus lockdown.
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics says payroll jobs rose 0.2 per cent in the fortnight to September 25, partially recovering from a 0.6 per cent drop in the previous two weeks.
"While there is some volatility in these numbers, this is a promising sign," Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said.
The latest period of coverage was not included in last week's full labour force report, which showed the loss of 138,000 jobs in September, and more than a quarter of a million positions in the space of two months.
The report comes the day after the National Skills Commission's vacancy report showed job advertisements posted on the internet rose 4.9 per cent in September, ending three months of declines.
Jobs ads surged 16.7 per cent for positions in NSW.
"It's very clear, once restrictions are eased, businesses doors reopen, they start rehiring, and people's jobs come back," Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told ABC radio.
National Australia Bank economist Taylor Nugent said NSW drove the payrolls increase, rising 0.9 per cent in the fortnight, which possibly reflected an easing in restrictions for construction jobs during the state's lockdown.
"Payroll jobs and employment should start to lift sharply from mid-October with all former lockdown states ending stay-at-home orders in the month," Mr Nugent said.
NSW lifted its restrictions on October 11, the ACT on October 15, and Victoria will start easing from midnight on Thursday.
A separate report released on Thursday showed the extent of the damage caused by the lockdowns on business conditions and confidence in the September quarter.
The economy is widely expected to have contracted in the September quarter, but a recovery is seen likely in the December quarter.
The NAB quarterly business survey showed that while conditions deteriorated sharply, they didn't fall to the depths seen during the first lockdowns in 2020.
"That shows the resilience that the economy has built up by adapting to past lockdowns, as well as the residual strength from earlier in the year and the impact of government support," NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.
"Since this survey was conducted, vaccination rates have risen dramatically and both NSW and Victoria are now beginning the process of reopening. That should see business conditions improve considerably over the coming months."
The NAB business conditions index tumbled 17 points during the September quarter to an index of plus 13 points, while confidence slumped 19 points to an index of minus one point.
Australian Associated Press
