Throughout that very useful strategic plan, council duly pursued also the goals of managing the shire’s resources to the betterment of all residents and visitors alike. 

The implications drawn from publication of that document in 2011 included the very real expectations that council’s action plans (which logically stem from strategic plans) would include specific programs to further those lofty but desirable goals in the 2030 plan.

In the same time period, BVSC has pursued various forms of analysis to help determine a final, achievable and beneficial plan for the strategic development of Merimbula Airport. 

This process was meant to work in harmony with the shire’s 2030 strategic plan, and indeed the sub-sets of the 2030 plan included airport development as being consistent with business and tourism growth for the shire. 

Quite rightly, the 2014 open council meetings in Merimbula, for example, stressed the need for phased development of the Merimbula Airport precinct (as recommended by various consultants including myself) to match similar growth patterns in the business and tourism sectors.

It would seem from recent announcements attributed to the mayor that any previous undertaking and hence expectations of gradually developing the airport precinct are likely to proceed apace without significant accompanying growth and development in the shire’s business and tourism sectors. 

The likely debt burden for ratepayers is suddenly being showcased as including a four-yearly resealing of the runway, something that was never part of discussions and declarations of council to ratepayers in these past three or four years.

Indeed as other correspondents have mentioned, the airport resealing project last year carried a stated “20-year life expectancy” without caveats of frequent resealing being mentioned.

More recent up-to-date information now provided by council staff and the mayor have put some of the above concerns into a more understandable context. 

There is indeed a “master strategy” for the development of the airport and funds have been sought as grants from the state government.

There are no guarantees that adequate funding will be approved since BVSC and Merimbula Airport are vying for a $6.7m grant out of a total $100m available to some 20-plus regional airports. 

Thus the main strategic thrust about airport development will need to anticipate, as an option, getting only a fraction of that amount sought, and develop phased planning to cope with whatever grant funding is actually provided. 

None of this involved council funds matching as I understand it, so that means that at least some developments may well proceed without burdening the ratepayers further.

The key issue beyond optimistic development of the airport is that the project in its many phases is based on an optimistic projection of increased usage justifying the expenditure and effort.

This issue came up in recent discussions between council staff and potential bidders to take over management of the airport, and no clear projection of growth (hence income) could be given.

The underlying reason for this is that despite a number of studies being done since 2011, there still exists a dearth of clear thinking about what exactly is needed to grow passenger numbers using the airport and air travel as their preferential choice. 

This issue strikes right to the core of “elasticity of demand” as a concept, since people make their choices for a wide variety of reasons, only some of which relate to the price of an air ticket. 

The criteria for measuring elasticity are well known and documented in relevant literature, and yet the current study being done to look at potential growth in demand, undertaken at the behest of council, seems to ignore many if not most of the preferential choice issues relevant to a destination like Merimbula Airport.

I genuinely believe in the cause of enhancing transport infrastructure having worked in this field for some time. 

But I would offer the view to council that there is room to take on board some form of community consultation committee, seeking advice from people knowledgeable and experienced about business, tourism and aviation where such advice may be not so easily obtained within council staff or amongst councillors themselves. 

And taking up this option might just, with commitment from council, allow there to be a more genuinely consultative process to inform and involve the community, than presently exists.

Don McDowell

Strategic analyst and former director of aviation, NT

Pambula