PRIME Minister Julia Gillard's ratings have gone backwards in an Age/Nielsen post-budget poll showing Labor still trailing the Coalition 44-56 per cent and voters deeply sceptical about the government's Malaysian deal to deter boat arrivals.
In a fillip for the Coalition, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's approval has risen, and he has narrowed Ms Gillard's lead as preferred PM to three points - the closest they have been.
People are split over the budget and its fairness, while nearly six in 10 disapprove of the people-swapping deal with Malaysia and more than eight in 10 say it will make no difference or increase arrivals. Almost seven in 10 who support the agreement believe it won't work.
Labor's primary vote remains at a rock bottom 31 per cent, while the Coalition is steady on 47 per cent in the poll of 1400 taken from Thursday to Saturday. The Greens vote fell two points to 10 per cent. The Coalition two-party lead is the same as last month.
Ms Gillard's approval declined two points to a record 43 per cent; her disapproval was up two to 52 per cent, also a record for her. Mr Abbott's approval rose three to 45 per cent; his disapproval was down one to 50 per cent.
Ms Gillard still leads as preferred PM but only narrowly - 47 per cent, down three points to Mr Abbott's 44 per cent, up two.
With the budget's mild squeeze on family payments for higher income earners hotly debated last week, 42 per cent said the budget was ''fair''. This was down 14 points on 2009, when the question was last asked. Thirty-nine per cent said it was not fair (up six points on two years ago).
People were evenly divided - 44 per cent each - when asked whether they were satisfied with the budget. The satisfaction rating was well below those in 2008 and 2009.
Among Labor voters, 63 per cent said the budget was fair and 70 per cent were satisfied with it. Only 28 per cent of Coalition voters said it was fair and 27 per cent were satisfied.
Ms Gillard yesterday promised the family payment eligibility system would go back to the normal indexation arrangements after two years. The budget put a two-year freeze on indexation for the payments' upper eligibility thresholds.
Asked yesterday why she was having such trouble getting her message through, Ms Gillard said: ''We get the message out there … as best we can. We've explained this budget up hill and down dale and we will continue to do so.''
She told the ABC she did not concern herself with ''the 24-hour media cycle and the day-to-day political plays. I'm there, out delivering the policies this nation needs … if you like, I'm there as the architect as we're building the nation.''
She described Mr Abbott as ''like the kid with the baseball cap on backwards going past, shouting a slogan and spraying some graffiti''.
Former treasurer Peter Costello pronounced Ms Gillard ''dead''. ''The public has made up its mind,'' he told Channel 10. Mr Abbott now had to show ''he can be a statesman-like figure who can manage Australia''.
As the proposed Malaysia solution - in which Australia will swap 800 asylum seekers for 4000 refugees - failed to win public support, the government moved to shore up the deterrent by declaring it will send asylum seekers intercepted at the weekend to a third country.
The first vessel to arrive after the policy announcement - still to be finalised between the two governments - was intercepted near Broome, with 32 asylum seekers and one crew member aboard.
The people are on their way to Christmas Island for identity checking. They will then be sent to a third country, as yet unnamed, for their refugee
claims to be assessed. Ms Gillard told the ABC yesterday: ''We will hold these asylum seekers pending removal.''
The government is still negotiating with Papua New Guinea for a processing centre there.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd had talks late last week with the Thais about regional arrangements.
Afterwards, Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said the Australian-Malaysian ''likely agreement would provide some sort of certainty and also a model for others to study''.
He added the agreement ''is something that the rest of us would be interested to look at''.
Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it.
Asked about the policy's effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them.
Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals - just 28 per cent think it will reduce them.
Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.
Commenting on the Thai talks, a spokeswoman for Immigration Minister Chris Bowen said that Australia and Thailand already worked closely to fight people smuggling.
''Thailand has been a strong supporter of the Regional Co-operation Framework and the Bali Process and the Australian government looks forward to engaging with them as part of that process.''
She said the positive regional responses to the Malaysian deal were a reminder of the resolve to combat people smuggling.
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